Tongkun Co. (601233) 2019 Interim Report Review: Company Performance Steady Growth Industry Leader Segmentation Steady

The company’s leading company is stable, the sales of major products increased by 44% in the first half of the year, and the PTA spread in the second quarter increased significantly from the previous quarter, driving growth in performance.

At present, the Sino-US trade talks are stabilizing, and domestic demand is about to usher in the peak demand season. The profit of PTA and polyester filament is expected to maintain a high level in the second half of the year.

With reference to the evaluation of companies in the same industry, a target price of 18 is given based on a 12-time PE evaluation in 1919.

0 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

The company’s performance in the first half of the year grew steadily, in line with expectations.

The company achieved operating income of 24.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2019, an increase of 32% year-on-year, and net profit of 13%.

9 trillion, +2 for ten years.

2%; 19Q2 operating income of 13 billion yuan, + 20% over the years, + 11% MoM, net profit attributable to mother 8.

7 trillion, +1 a year.

1%, + 67% MoM.

The first half of the company’s performance has steadily improved, mainly due to the increase in new production capacity to drive the company’s main product production and sales growth, including the second quarter’s quarter-on-quarter improvement was mainly due to the expansion of PTA product spreads.

The company’s production and sales of major products increased steadily in the first half of the year, and the PTA spread increased significantly in the second quarter.

In the first half of the year, the total production / sales of polyester filament and PTA were 288/309 tons, +31% / + 44% per year, which promoted the company’s performance improvement and stabilized the industry’s leading level.

The company’s main products in Q2 improved profitability. Among them, the PTA price difference was 1196 yuan / ton, for a period of + 280%, and the chain price was + 53%. The average price of polyester filament was 1964 yuan / ton, more than -25%, and the chain price was +3.

1%.

The company’s PTA price difference improved significantly in the second quarter, mainly due to the constant refinement of Hengli in the first half of the year, and then the PX localization process accelerated. The industry performance PX shifted to high profits and downstream. In the second quarter, the average PX price decreased by about 850 yuan / ton.At the same time, PTA only dropped by about 100 yuan / ton.

The Sino-US trade dispute is expected to stabilize, and the domestic demand season is about to usher in, and the company’s follow-up performance can be expected.

Recently, the United States announced that it intends to increase tariffs on 10 billion US dollars in Chinese goods by 10%, and then re-implement some of the goods until December. Overall, the end of the Sino-U.S. Trade dispute has stabilized. If the tariff dust is settled, it will help promote the determination of trade between the two parties.Sex.

In terms of domestic demand, the domestic market is about to usher in the “golden nine silver ten” peak season of winter clothing change season, which will help marginal improvement.

On the supply side, the domestic 合肥夜网 PTA increased production capacity in the second half of the year. Only the new Fengming family. The industry gradually maintained a tight layout. The growth rate of polyester filament supply in 19-20 was basically the same as the long-term demand growth of the industry.In the process, it is expected that PTA and polyester filament will still maintain a high level of profitability in 19-20 years.

ZPEC’s production will contribute to the second half of the year, and the company’s new projects will continue to advance and consolidate the leading category.

The company holds a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical. The first phase of the 2000 / year refining and chemical integration project was put into operation in May 19, and the company’s industrial chain can be extended upstream to PX to achieve a complete industrial chain connection and ensure the company’s stable supply of raw materials. It is expected thatIt will also increase the company’s second half performance.

In addition, the company’s new traditional polyester filament project is progressing smoothly, of which Hengbang Phase 4 30 is inserted into the polyester device to start driving, and the spinning device is expected to be finally driven; Heng Optimized Slim 30 to POY project is expected to be driven in August 19; Peptide Device;The slim body 30 short-term technical improvement POY project and the introduction of green chemical fiber in Hengteng Phase 4 30 have steadily advanced, further ensuring that the company’s leading position is stable.

Risk factors: the risk of sharp fluctuations in international oil prices, the risk of intensified trade disputes between the United States and China, and the risk of projects under construction falling short of expectations.

Investment suggestion: Maintain the company’s 19-21 profit forecast26.

900 million / 34.

700 million / 42.

400 million, EPS forecast is 1.

48/1.

91/2.

33 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 9/7/6 times.

With reference to the assessment of companies in the same industry, the company’s target price is 18 based on 12 times PE estimates in 2019.

0 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.