Peacebird (603877): 2018 net profit increased by 28% TOC optimizes inventory turnover

Investment Highlights: Net profit increased by 28% in 2018.

The company achieved a maximum income of 77.

12 ppm, an increase of 7 per year.

78%, net profit 5.

72 ppm, an increase of 27 per year.

51%, gross margin is 53.

43%, an increase of 0 a year.

54pct, net interest rate is 7.

41%, an increase of one year.

15 marks.

2018Q4 revenue 28.

24 ppm, a reduction of 0 per year.

38%, net profit 2.

89 ‰, increasing by 2 every year.

60%, gross margin is 51.

83%, an increase of 3 per year.

59pct, with a net interest rate of 10.

24%, 0 per year.


Dividend pays 10 yuan for every 10 shares with a dividend payout ratio of 89% and a dividend payout ratio of 4.


Men’s clothing and children’s clothing maintained high growth against the trend, and Rakucho showed a momentum of recovery.

In 2018, the company’s traditional categories of men’s clothing and children’s clothing still maintained steady growth. PB men’s clothing, Mini children’s clothing, PB women’s clothing, and Rakucho brands achieved 12 respectively.

29%, 21.

85%, -0.

37%, 6.

35% growth.

In 4Q18, under the severe environment of the industry, the revenue of dominant category PB men’s clothing and Mini children’s clothing still achieved 3 respectively.

68%, 17.

79% increase, estimated that PB women’s income decreased by 16.

35%; PB men’s clothing, as a category for in-depth practice of TOC, fully reflects the impact of regulating market changes on retail. In the summer of 2018, PB men’s clothing was purchased through TOC’s follow-up purchases, which improved retail performance by 34%.

In the first three quarters of 2018, Rakucho lost 1 due to the closure of multiple associate stores in 2017.

82%. Judging from the significant recovery in Q4, the adjustment of Rakumachi has been phased out. We judge that Rakumachi’s income and profitability will continue to improve in 2019.

Omni-channel four-wheel drive, e-commerce + shopping mall retail accounted for 51%.

The company continues its omni-channel strategy. At the end of 2018, the total number of offline stores was 4,594, with 1111 new openings and a net increase of 343. By channel, the number of shopping malls, street stores, department stores, and outlets was 1719 and 721, 1966, 188, of which a net increase of 333 shopping malls, is the main type of long-term store growth.

From the perspective of retail sales, the company’s 10-year retail sales of 112 trillion and shopping malls 34 trillion, an increase of 17%, accounting for 30%, overlapping online retail of 2.4 billion, accounting for 51% of the total retail sales (48% last year).The company has cultivated new channels early and has worked hard. It now accounts for more than half of its retail sales and continues to enjoy dividend growth from new channels.

The retail environment in the 18Q4 industry was weak, and revenue growth in various channels was under pressure.
According to the company’s performance commitments, the goal of 2018 to achieve the replacement of incentive costs to the mother net profit.

US $ 500 million. We believe that the profit in this period did not reach the target due to the weakness of the 18Q4 apparel retail industry, leading to revenue growth potential. The growth rate of e-commerce in 18Q4 was 6.

09%, the direct-operated stores increased slightly in time due to the adjustment of sales strategy3.

12%, and the company’s continued increase in the pressure on the franchise channel led to a single quarter decline in franchise revenue7.

63%; In the past, direct sales, franchise, and e-commerce channel revenue increased by 14.

36%, 1.

01%, 11.


In a weak market, TOC helps to optimize inventory turnover.

However, under the circumstance that the growth rate of income is related, the company’s inventory is basically the same as the same period, and the inventory at the end of 201818.

3.6 billion, a decrease of 0 a year.

12%, the turnover days decreased by 1 day to 186 days.

The first 南宁桑拿 and second phases of the company’s TOC model are “request for sales” and “allocation of deferred payments”. The first time to place an order, it is prudent to make incremental sales through replenishment of sales orders, and at the same time make rapid allocation of deferred sales.Achieve timely digestion within the channel.

Under the strategy of dataization and intelligence, even the market environment is not conducive to sales, the company still has not produced a large amount of inventory. At the end of 2018, the inventory accounted for 77% of the inventory in the two years, an increase of 5pct earlier.

The company has proven the anti-risk capability of the TOC model in a weak market. We believe that the market environment has changed and the flexible supply capacity of TOC will increase the sales scale, and the effect of expanding revenue growth will also appear.

Gross margin increased slightly by 0.

54 points to 53.

4%, terminal discount control is good.

The company’s highest gross margin is 53.

4%, a year to raise 0.

At 54pct, the company’s product management effect has appeared. In 2018, the retail discount of summer products increased by 2%; the gross profit margin of PB women’s clothing gradually decreased by 1.

15pct to 53.

11%, Rakucho, PB men’s clothing, Mini children’s clothing gross margin increased by 6 respectively.

18, 0.

66, 0.

37 points to 49.

88%, 57.

37%, 52.


Among them, in 18Q4, under the condition of poor retail conditions, the company still maintained terminal retail discounts. In the single quarter, the gross profit margins of PB women’s clothing, Rakucho, PB men’s clothing, and Mini children’s clothing increased.

97, 12.

52, 1.

47, 10.

21 points to maintain the company’s brand power and profitability.

Profit forecast and estimation.

We expect the company’s net profit to be 6 in 19 and 20 respectively.

89, 7.
At 5.7 billion US dollars, as of the close of 4/4/2019, the corresponding price-earnings ratio was 15, 14X, and the company was given 15-17X PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 21.

twenty four.

31 yuan, maintaining the “preliminary market” rating.
risk warning.

The terminal retail environment is weak, new brand cultivation is not up to expectations, and inventory impairment risks.