State Laojiao (000568): Interim report meets expected business trends and continues to improve

Incident Description Company 19H1 achieved operating income of 80.

100 million, +24 a year.

8%, net profit attributable to mother 27.

5 ‰, +39 a year.

8%; of which Q2 income is 38.

400 million, previously + 26%, net profit attributable to mother 12.

400 million, previously + 36%.

Core point 1. Performance is in line with expectations, growth remains stable, and report quality is high: The company continued its quarterly reporting trend in the second quarter, and overall performance was in line with expectations, and performance was as stable as ever; high-end volume and optimized product structure drove Q2.

1pct to 80.

3% is the core reason for the continuous improvement of the company’s profitability; in the off-season market, Q2 expenses increased and rebate settlement, the sales expense ratio increased by +2.

7pct to 21.

7%, the management expense rate is ten years -2.

1pct to 4.

9%; second-quarter sales closed at +54 for two years.

2% to 39.

US $ 900 million, indicating a good recovery, the operating cash flow increased by a low base in the same period last year; the advance receipts at the end of the period increased by 1 from the previous quarter.

100 million to 13.

90,000 yuan (2% lower than the same period last year.

900 million), the reservoir is accumulating, and the actual fundamental performance is expected to be more optimistic.

2. The national cellar continued to increase its volume, and the marketing policy adjustment was advanced in an orderly manner: in the first half of the year, the high-end products (national cellar series) were at least +30.

5% to 43.

1 trillion, accounting for 53% of the total revenue.

8%, with reference to the peak period of national cellar history (approximately 66.

9%), there is still room for improvement in the future.

According to channel feedback, after the suspension of the product before the Spring Festival, the company’s Q2 significantly increased the country’s cellar investment. It is expected that at the beginning of August, the company has completed more than 70% of its completed tasks. Since then, the State Reserve has re-priced the dual-track system and increased the unplanned price by 30.In the middle of August, the terminal’s “fuse reward” price was further increased to 900 yuan (an increase of 40 yuan) to strengthen the terminal’s gradual system implementation and market control.

In the long run, with the continued expansion of high-end capacity and the widening of the Moutai price spread, coupled with the orderly advancement of the company’s multiple price strategies, we expect the state reserve price to continue to increase.

3. The volume and price of mid-range wines have risen rapidly, and the low-end structure has been rapidly upgraded: the mid-range special song storage age is +35.

1% to 22.

2 trillion, an increase from 18 years (27.

8%) to further increase, gross margin ten years + 5% to 82.

6%, of which the special high-end price of 500 yuan “Special song 60” officially opened the national layout (group purchase channel) this year, it is expected that the growth rate will be higher and gradually reach 1 billion sales scale; Boda company is still in the process of recovery, and the revenue growth rate is relativelySlow, but the brand carding and structure improvement is obvious, the gross profit margin drops +6.

6pct to 38.

9%.

As a whole, the company’s mid- and low-end adjustments in the past two years have basically eliminated the drag on overall performance. In the future, the high-end and sub-high-end will continue to exert force, the product structure will improve, and the revenue scale will steadily expand.

4. The industry trend remains unchanged, and the company’s development will continue to benefit: the overall trend of liquor continues, volume decreases, price levels upgrade, and concentration increases.

As one of the industry leaders, the company’s operations have been relatively high and stable in recent years, and fundamentals and performance have continued to improve. After a rapid growth in the past few years, Guojiao’s growth rate has dropped normally, but the sales momentum and consumer brand awareness have significantly improved.In the next two years, the company will continue to adopt a follow-up strategy, and the long-term price space for high-end wines is large. In addition, the company began to adjust the fee structure this year and shifted from channels to consumers. We expect that the company’s expense rate will continue to follow a downward trend for a long time, and profit growth will promote maintenance.High position, keep optimistic!

5. Profit forecast and rating: EPS is expected to be 3 in 19-21.

25/4.27/5.

54 yuan, corresponding to PE27 / 21/16 times, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.

6. Risk reminders: 1) industry competition intensifies, expenses continue to increase and increase affect profits; 2) the effect of 北京夜生活 price increases is less than expected; 3) changes in macroeconomics affect industry demand, and the decline in prices of Moutai has squeezed the growth of the state reserve.